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Date : Feb 08, 2024
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of January 2024 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during January 2-11, 2024 in 19 major cities, with responses from 6,062 urban households. Female respondents accounted for 52.3 per cent of this sample.

Highlights:

  1. Households’ current inflation perception declined by 10 basis points (bps) from the previous survey round to 8.1 per cent in January 2024 [Charts 1(a) and 1(b); Table 3].

  2. Median inflation expectation for the three months ahead increased by 10 bps and stood at 9.2 per cent, while it reduced for one year horizon by 10 bps to 10.0 per cent in the latest survey round [Charts 1(a) and 1(b); Table 3].

  3. A higher share of respondents foresees a rise in inflation in the near term but, over a one-year horizon, the share of households anticipating higher inflation has moderated as compared to the previous survey round [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

  4. Majority of survey participants expect a rise in price and inflationary pressures especially for food product category for the three months horizon [Table 1(a)].

  5. Households’ expectations on overall prices were generally aligned to their expectation on prices of cost of services, food and non-food items. This alignment is more pronounced, especially concerning food products, when looking ahead to the next year [Table 4].

Chart 1a & Chart 1b

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jan-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 84.3 0.76 80.8 0.86 74.2 0.97 74.1 0.93 78.2 0.84
Price increase more than current rate 60.8 1.14 55.3 1.20 49.5 1.10 50.8 1.13 54.4 1.09
Price increase similar to current rate 20.2 0.86 21.8 0.93 20.0 0.80 19.1 0.85 19.5 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 3.4 0.36 3.6 0.39 4.7 0.47 4.2 0.42 4.2 0.43
No changes in prices 13.3 0.71 16.1 0.79 20.7 0.88 21.2 0.88 18.3 0.79
Decline in prices 2.3 0.30 3.1 0.41 5.0 0.52 4.7 0.45 3.6 0.37
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 84.6 0.72 84.0 0.77 75.4 0.87 75.5 0.90 80.2 0.77
Price increase more than current rate 61.1 1.08 63.5 1.04 55.1 1.05 53.7 1.04 59.3 1.00
Price increase similar to current rate 18.4 0.77 15.5 0.72 15.1 0.71 16.1 0.74 15.6 0.72
Price increase less than current rate 5.1 0.43 5.0 0.44 5.3 0.46 5.8 0.47 5.4 0.45
No changes in prices 10.2 0.59 9.0 0.60 13.2 0.68 15.5 0.76 12.3 0.65
Decline in prices 5.2 0.45 7.0 0.54 11.3 0.66 9.0 0.57 7.5 0.51
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.8 0.77 75.5 0.92 69.2 0.93 73.8 0.87 74.0 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 56.4 1.08 52.2 1.16 47.1 1.04 52.4 1.04 52.3 1.03
Price increase similar to current rate 20.5 0.82 18.4 0.80 16.7 0.72 16.1 0.72 16.4 0.71
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.44 4.9 0.43 5.4 0.51 5.3 0.46 5.2 0.45
No changes in prices 13.4 0.67 18.3 0.80 20.5 0.77 19.5 0.77 18.6 0.76
Decline in prices 4.7 0.43 6.2 0.54 10.3 0.66 6.7 0.48 7.4 0.52
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 72.4 0.90 65.8 0.97 62.2 0.99 63.8 0.98 65.5 0.93
Price increase more than current rate 50.3 1.07 45.3 1.12 43.2 1.05 45.5 1.02 46.3 1.04
Price increase similar to current rate 17.5 0.71 15.8 0.75 14.1 0.65 13.4 0.68 14.5 0.65
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.42 4.6 0.41 4.9 0.43 4.9 0.43 4.7 0.42
No changes in prices 21.2 0.84 25.0 0.88 26.4 0.88 25.9 0.89 25.2 0.85
Decline in prices 6.3 0.47 9.2 0.60 11.3 0.64 10.3 0.59 9.4 0.57
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 78.0 0.86 76.8 0.94 75.1 0.95 76.8 0.88 78.4 0.83
Price increase more than current rate 58.4 1.08 56.0 1.14 54.3 1.09 57.2 1.09 58.2 1.05
Price increase similar to current rate 16.3 0.73 17.0 0.75 16.3 0.66 15.5 0.72 16.1 0.72
Price increase less than current rate 3.3 0.35 3.7 0.35 4.5 0.43 4.1 0.37 4.0 0.41
No changes in prices 18.9 0.84 20.2 0.88 20.9 0.90 20.0 0.83 18.1 0.79
Decline in prices 3.1 0.34 3.0 0.37 4.1 0.46 3.2 0.36 3.6 0.34
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 71.7 0.90 67.7 0.97 63.0 1.04 63.3 0.96 65.0 0.93
Price increase more than current rate 49.9 1.08 47.3 1.13 44.7 1.05 43.7 1.09 46.1 1.02
Price increase similar to current rate 17.6 0.71 15.9 0.72 14.5 0.68 15.5 0.70 15.0 0.69
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.40 4.5 0.40 3.9 0.40 4.2 0.40 3.8 0.37
No changes in prices 25.5 0.88 28.2 0.90 31.2 0.99 31.5 0.93 30.5 0.91
Decline in prices 2.7 0.30 4.1 0.43 5.7 0.54 5.1 0.48 4.5 0.41
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jan-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 91.6 0.53 88.6 0.68 86.2 0.74 89.0 0.65 88.7 0.63
Price increase more than current rate 70.8 1.02 65.0 1.07 62.2 1.05 67.2 1.07 66.3 1.06
Price increase similar to current rate 17.9 0.81 20.5 0.86 19.9 0.81 18.4 0.87 19.1 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 3.0 0.33 3.1 0.33 4.1 0.43 3.4 0.38 3.3 0.36
No changes in prices 5.7 0.43 8.6 0.57 9.6 0.59 8.4 0.56 8.2 0.55
Decline in prices 2.6 0.31 2.8 0.35 4.2 0.48 2.7 0.35 3.0 0.36
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 88.0 0.64 84.7 0.75 82.8 0.80 86.1 0.71 86.4 0.68
Price increase more than current rate 62.7 1.07 60.6 1.11 57.9 1.09 63.2 1.06 63.6 1.03
Price increase similar to current rate 20.7 0.87 20.1 0.85 19.7 0.82 18.4 0.83 18.2 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.42 4.0 0.38 5.3 0.48 4.5 0.41 4.7 0.43
No changes in prices 7.6 0.50 9.3 0.59 9.6 0.58 8.8 0.56 8.7 0.53
Decline in prices 4.4 0.39 6.0 0.48 7.6 0.60 5.1 0.44 4.9 0.43
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 86.7 0.67 81.6 0.85 78.9 0.83 82.6 0.78 82.0 0.80
Price increase more than current rate 62.0 1.09 57.1 1.16 54.7 1.05 60.7 1.09 59.1 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 20.5 0.83 20.6 0.83 19.7 0.78 17.4 0.80 18.6 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 4.3 0.41 3.9 0.38 4.5 0.44 4.5 0.42 4.4 0.41
No changes in prices 9.1 0.54 13.5 0.72 13.9 0.66 12.9 0.65 13.1 0.66
Decline in prices 4.1 0.39 4.8 0.48 7.2 0.57 4.5 0.43 4.8 0.45
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 80.8 0.77 75.8 0.88 73.9 0.91 75.5 0.89 74.8 0.84
Price increase more than current rate 57.2 1.08 53.2 1.10 52.4 1.04 55.3 1.07 54.0 1.06
Price increase similar to current rate 19.3 0.79 18.4 0.80 17.3 0.71 16.3 0.77 16.7 0.69
Price increase less than current rate 4.3 0.41 4.2 0.38 4.1 0.42 3.9 0.39 4.1 0.41
No changes in prices 13.8 0.65 17.7 0.76 18.5 0.76 17.7 0.76 18.3 0.75
Decline in prices 5.4 0.43 6.5 0.48 7.7 0.56 6.8 0.50 6.9 0.49
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 87.4 0.63 86.8 0.69 86.1 0.70 87.9 0.68 88.0 0.65
Price increase more than current rate 66.8 0.98 64.6 1.05 65.0 1.04 68.5 1.02 67.7 0.96
Price increase similar to current rate 17.2 0.77 18.5 0.79 16.9 0.73 16.3 0.78 16.7 0.74
Price increase less than current rate 3.5 0.36 3.8 0.37 4.2 0.42 3.1 0.36 3.6 0.40
No changes in prices 9.8 0.57 10.4 0.60 10.1 0.56 9.4 0.61 9.1 0.55
Decline in prices 2.8 0.30 2.7 0.34 3.8 0.43 2.7 0.34 2.9 0.34
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 84.0 0.72 80.9 0.80 78.4 0.86 80.8 0.81 79.5 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 60.2 1.08 57.3 1.12 56.2 1.05 59.2 1.08 58.8 1.03
Price increase similar to current rate 19.7 0.80 19.6 0.83 18.0 0.70 17.6 0.80 16.6 0.72
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.41 4.0 0.39 4.2 0.43 4.0 0.40 4.1 0.40
No changes in prices 13.1 0.65 15.5 0.72 17.1 0.74 16.3 0.74 17.0 0.72
Decline in prices 2.8 0.33 3.5 0.37 4.4 0.48 2.9 0.36 3.5 0.37
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Jan-24
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.8 0.09 8.1 0.12 9.7 0.09 9.2 0.17 9.6 0.10 10.0 0.13
Gender-wise                        
Male 8.9 0.13 8.3 0.18 9.8 0.13 9.4 0.27 9.7 0.15 10.0 0.18
Female 8.6 0.12 8.0 0.16 9.6 0.13 9.1 0.21 9.5 0.14 9.9 0.20
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 8.0 0.44 7.3 0.54 8.6 0.43 7.9 0.72 9.4 0.71 9.2 0.75
Other Employees 8.9 0.18 8.3 0.23 9.7 0.19 9.3 0.34 9.5 0.23 10.0 0.22
Self Employed 9.2 0.19 8.7 0.31 9.9 0.20 9.8 0.33 9.5 0.24 9.9 0.34
Homemaker 8.6 0.14 8.1 0.17 9.7 0.14 9.2 0.23 9.6 0.17 10.0 0.18
Retired Persons 9.0 0.33 8.0 0.33 10.0 0.35 9.3 0.50 10.3 0.38 10.3 0.36
Daily Workers 8.9 0.23 8.4 0.37 9.7 0.26 9.3 0.47 9.3 0.31 9.7 0.51
Other category 8.1 0.21 7.5 0.22 8.9 0.22 8.2 0.27 9.1 0.26 9.0 0.34
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.9 0.17 7.3 0.19 8.8 0.18 8.2 0.21 9.1 0.21 9.0 0.22
25 to 30 years 8.6 0.18 8.0 0.23 9.4 0.18 8.9 0.27 9.6 0.22 9.6 0.35
30 to 35 years 8.9 0.19 8.3 0.21 9.8 0.20 9.5 0.34 9.9 0.24 10.2 0.15
35 to 40 years 9.0 0.19 8.4 0.23 9.8 0.20 9.3 0.30 9.6 0.25 10.1 0.22
40 to 45 years 9.0 0.23 8.5 0.36 9.9 0.24 9.7 0.37 9.7 0.29 10.2 0.18
45 to 50 years 9.1 0.22 8.6 0.30 10.0 0.24 9.6 0.46 9.6 0.30 10.0 0.34
50 to 55 years 8.7 0.29 8.0 0.31 9.7 0.31 9.4 0.66 9.5 0.36 9.9 0.52
55 to 60 years 8.8 0.30 8.1 0.55 9.8 0.30 9.7 0.43 9.3 0.35 9.7 0.63
60 years and above 8.9 0.29 8.2 0.35 9.7 0.29 9.5 0.49 9.6 0.34 10.0 0.43
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 7.6 0.32 7.1 0.29 8.5 0.37 8.0 0.26 7.8 0.45 7.8 0.26
Bengaluru 7.7 0.21 6.0 0.31 8.7 0.20 7.5 0.43 9.5 0.25 9.3 0.62
Bhopal 7.9 0.45 6.8 0.83 8.6 0.50 7.7 0.93 7.9 0.58 7.8 0.99
Bhubaneswar 8.9 0.70 9.4 0.31 10.7 0.71 11.0 1.03 11.0 0.85 12.3 1.58
Chennai 9.2 0.32 9.6 0.60 10.4 0.39 10.4 0.40 11.6 0.42 12.3 1.27
Delhi 9.4 0.23 9.3 0.55 10.1 0.24 10.2 0.21 10.1 0.25 10.3 0.19
Guwahati 8.0 0.69 7.5 0.78 8.6 0.65 8.2 0.80 9.2 0.57 9.1 0.60
Hyderabad 7.5 0.24 6.9 0.30 8.5 0.27 7.9 0.23 8.2 0.34 8.8 0.48
Jaipur 8.2 0.66 7.9 0.70 8.7 0.57 8.3 0.51 7.6 0.68 7.6 0.84
Jammu 9.9 0.81 9.1 1.57 9.6 0.70 8.8 1.23 8.6 0.92 8.0 1.49
Kolkata 10.1 0.32 9.9 0.58 11.0 0.31 10.6 0.45 11.1 0.30 11.1 0.60
Lucknow 9.1 0.42 8.4 0.68 9.9 0.47 9.4 0.81 10.0 0.49 9.9 0.69
Mumbai 8.8 0.21 8.2 0.17 9.9 0.20 9.5 0.33 9.0 0.27 9.8 0.40
Nagpur 9.7 0.42 9.2 0.49 10.9 0.46 10.4 0.36 10.3 0.66 10.9 0.62
Patna 7.8 0.50 7.7 0.67 8.2 0.50 8.0 0.64 8.3 0.51 8.2 0.60
Thiruvananthapuram 7.5 0.75 7.0 0.93 8.8 0.73 8.3 0.81 10.3 0.94 10.3 0.89
Chandigarh 10.1 0.56 10.2 0.49 9.9 0.71 9.9 0.95 9.9 0.68 10.3 0.79
Ranchi 9.2 0.34 8.7 0.30 9.6 0.37 9.3 0.35 9.5 0.45 9.7 0.43
Raipur 9.9 0.61 9.7 0.80 10.6 0.57 10.5 0.52 10.8 0.64 11.3 0.82
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Jan-23 9.7 0.09 9.6 0.30 10.8 0.10 10.5 0.08 10.8 0.11 10.8 0.09
Jul-23 9.3 0.09 8.9 0.14 10.2 0.09 10.0 0.15 10.0 0.11 10.3 0.07
Sep-23 9.0 0.09 8.4 0.11 9.7 0.09 9.1 0.17 9.3 0.11 9.9 0.17
Nov-23 8.9 0.09 8.2 0.12 9.7 0.09 9.1 0.18 9.6 0.10 10.1 0.10
Jan-24 8.8 0.09 8.1 0.12 9.7 0.09 9.2 0.17 9.6 0.10 10.0 0.13
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Jan-23 65.6 67.3 62.6 66.2 66.5
Jul-23 63.1 65.5 60.9 64.5 65.7
Sep-23 62.0 64.3 60.7 63.2 66.3
Nov-23 66.5 61.8 57.0 60.7 66.4
Jan-24 65.2 65.4 60.8 64.2 65.8
One Year Ahead
Jan-23 75.2 74.8 68.4 74.7 74.0
Jul-23 73.4 73.0 66.9 73.4 73.6
Sep-23 69.8 71.2 66.8 72.2 71.5
Nov-23 74.8 73.9 68.1 75.3 73.9
Jan-24 76.5 74.1 67.9 74.9 74.6
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jan-24
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 13
1-<2 1 32 18 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 58
2-<3 4 18 92 72 40 13 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 243
3-<4 0 2 8 102 75 57 8 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 255
4-<5 0 3 14 19 143 92 51 12 10 0 1 0 0 10 0 1 0 0 356
5-<6 1 4 10 35 19 425 179 193 66 14 80 1 2 4 2 3 1 3 1042
6-<7 0 0 1 5 6 6 180 107 63 24 14 3 4 0 3 0 0 0 416
7-<8 0 0 4 3 5 19 7 220 128 74 74 2 4 0 8 2 1 2 553
8-<9 0 0 0 1 3 10 7 4 222 114 149 7 20 2 3 4 1 0 547
9-<10 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 3 4 107 82 19 26 4 6 8 0 0 264
10-<11 0 0 6 5 2 44 5 12 21 8 427 68 177 58 15 204 77 8 1137
11-<12 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 18 30 11 9 2 3 0 76
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 56 7 9 22 6 0 104
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 5 2 3 0 20
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 35 8 0 49
15-<16 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 3 0 2 3 1 104 99 1 218
>=16 0 1 4 0 4 4 0 0 1 0 15 0 1 0 0 16 658 7 711
Total 17 61 157 246 300 678 441 554 516 342 852 118 322 108 66 403 859 22 6062
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jan-24
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 8 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 13
1-<2 11 18 11 9 5 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 58
2-<3 40 5 46 57 53 23 7 6 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 243
3-<4 25 3 2 51 60 57 27 13 5 4 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 255
4-<5 64 0 2 5 69 69 79 23 27 7 4 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 356
5-<6 132 0 2 11 16 211 119 197 85 29 191 5 11 2 2 21 6 2 1042
6-<7 51 0 0 1 1 4 86 85 77 45 43 4 14 1 0 1 3 0 416
7-<8 51 0 4 1 2 7 6 108 119 87 109 17 18 2 7 10 3 2 553
8-<9 72 0 0 1 0 1 6 1 93 60 181 39 46 14 5 19 8 1 547
9-<10 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 57 49 31 39 12 19 15 10 0 264
10-<11 107 0 2 2 1 10 3 1 7 3 277 38 152 53 34 256 184 7 1137
11-<12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 11 8 23 12 8 0 76
12-<13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 26 8 16 27 17 0 104
13-<14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 4 5 4 0 20
14-<15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 35 7 0 49
15-<16 20 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 1 2 0 55 134 1 218
>=16 59 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 0 1 0 1 8 626 5 711
Total 680 27 73 138 208 389 333 434 419 295 874 152 322 106 116 465 1012 19 6062
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in the form of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on December 08, 2023. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://dbie.rbi.org.in/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.

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