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Date : Apr 09, 2025
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of March 2025 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during March 1-10, 2025, in 19 major cities, with 6,091 valid responses.

Highlights:

  1. Households' median inflation perception declined by 50 basis points (bps) from the previous survey round to 7.8 per cent, marking its lowest level since the pandemic [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. Inflation expectations for the three months and one-year ahead horizons also moderated by 40 bps and 50 bps to 8.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent, respectively [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  3. A lower share of households anticipated a rise in general prices and inflation for both the near term and the coming year compared to the previous survey round [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

  4. Respondents expect easing of inflationary pressures across most of the product groups, especially for food products and housing for both the time horizons [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

Chart 1a & 1b

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Mar-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 76.5 0.85 79.7 0.89 79.3 0.89 81.6 0.79 80.7 0.87
Price increase more than current rate 53.1 1.08 55.5 1.21 53.6 1.24 57.9 1.11 54.7 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 18.2 0.79 19.2 0.86 19.9 0.87 19.2 0.86 20.8 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 5.2 0.44 5.0 0.55 5.8 0.49 4.4 0.44 5.2 0.47
No changes in prices 19.6 0.80 17.9 0.85 18.7 0.87 16.5 0.76 17.3 0.84
Decline in prices 3.9 0.38 2.5 0.32 2.0 0.29 2.0 0.29 2.0 0.27
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 76.7 0.81 83.9 0.75 83.9 0.75 83.2 0.77 83.1 0.77
Price increase more than current rate 54.4 1.00 60.7 1.07 60.7 1.08 59.3 1.03 57.8 1.09
Price increase similar to current rate 15.7 0.69 16.7 0.77 17.0 0.81 17.3 0.78 18.3 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 6.6 0.50 6.6 0.58 6.2 0.50 6.7 0.53 7.0 0.54
No changes in prices 15.1 0.68 11.2 0.67 11.1 0.64 11.5 0.66 12.2 0.69
Decline in prices 8.2 0.54 4.9 0.42 5.0 0.44 5.3 0.45 4.7 0.40
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 71.5 0.87 76.1 0.92 75.9 0.90 75.2 0.86 75.6 0.89
Price increase more than current rate 48.9 1.01 52.4 1.11 51.7 1.14 52.5 1.04 53.3 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 16.2 0.71 17.7 0.78 17.9 0.78 16.8 0.74 15.3 0.74
Price increase less than current rate 6.4 0.48 6.1 0.55 6.3 0.50 6.0 0.47 7.0 0.54
No changes in prices 20.9 0.80 19.1 0.85 19.9 0.85 20.4 0.79 20.2 0.82
Decline in prices 7.7 0.51 4.7 0.42 4.2 0.39 4.4 0.40 4.2 0.39
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 64.7 0.92 64.9 1.03 66.5 1.00 67.0 0.99 66.7 0.98
Price increase more than current rate 43.8 1.01 45.9 1.11 46.3 1.11 46.9 1.09 45.2 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 15.5 0.70 14.2 0.71 14.5 0.70 14.7 0.71 15.8 0.74
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.44 4.7 0.48 5.7 0.50 5.4 0.45 5.8 0.51
No changes in prices 26.1 0.85 25.2 0.97 24.8 0.89 25.3 0.92 24.6 0.90
Decline in prices 9.2 0.57 9.8 0.55 8.7 0.55 7.8 0.50 8.6 0.52
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 76.9 0.83 77.7 0.88 78.9 0.85 78.5 0.91 78.0 0.88
Price increase more than current rate 55.8 1.07 56.9 1.11 57.4 1.14 58.0 1.10 56.5 1.09
Price increase similar to current rate 16.4 0.74 16.3 0.75 16.4 0.76 15.6 0.75 16.0 0.73
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.40 4.5 0.48 5.1 0.46 4.9 0.44 5.4 0.48
No changes in prices 19.6 0.78 19.1 0.87 18.2 0.79 18.3 0.87 19.1 0.84
Decline in prices 3.5 0.36 3.3 0.35 2.9 0.33 3.2 0.36 2.9 0.34
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 65.0 0.97 66.9 1.04 66.3 0.99 68.4 0.99 69.3 0.98
Price increase more than current rate 45.5 1.09 46.9 1.15 46.6 1.12 48.2 1.10 49.0 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 14.4 0.70 15.5 0.73 14.8 0.70 14.9 0.74 14.9 0.71
Price increase less than current rate 5.2 0.45 4.5 0.46 5.0 0.44 5.4 0.45 5.3 0.46
No changes in prices 30.1 0.92 29.8 1.01 30.7 0.98 28.4 0.96 27.8 0.95
Decline in prices 4.8 0.43 3.2 0.35 2.9 0.33 3.1 0.36 3.0 0.34
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Mar-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 87.4 0.67 89.4 0.73 89.6 0.67 90.6 0.62 89.7 0.67
Price increase more than current rate 64.7 1.08 66.5 1.20 66.9 1.14 68.7 1.06 65.4 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 18.5 0.83 18.6 0.91 18.6 0.85 18.1 0.87 19.7 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.41 4.4 0.50 4.1 0.40 3.8 0.43 4.6 0.44
No changes in prices 9.7 0.59 8.6 0.67 8.2 0.62 7.4 0.55 8.4 0.62
Decline in prices 2.9 0.35 2.0 0.28 2.2 0.30 2.0 0.29 1.9 0.27
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 84.5 0.73 86.6 0.78 89.0 0.66 88.8 0.65 87.9 0.66
Price increase more than current rate 59.5 1.10 61.8 1.20 64.4 1.13 63.5 1.10 60.8 1.09
Price increase similar to current rate 19.8 0.80 19.2 0.85 19.3 0.87 19.7 0.89 21.1 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 5.2 0.45 5.6 0.55 5.3 0.48 5.6 0.51 6.1 0.49
No changes in prices 10.1 0.61 9.7 0.66 7.3 0.53 7.7 0.55 8.9 0.58
Decline in prices 5.4 0.44 3.8 0.38 3.7 0.38 3.5 0.36 3.2 0.33
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.1 0.76 82.4 0.85 81.9 0.81 83.3 0.78 82.6 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 56.3 1.09 58.3 1.20 56.7 1.19 59.4 1.16 56.7 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 19.5 0.82 18.5 0.83 19.5 0.84 18.6 0.84 20.0 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.47 5.6 0.57 5.6 0.48 5.2 0.46 6.0 0.50
No changes in prices 14.1 0.69 14.0 0.77 14.7 0.76 13.2 0.69 13.9 0.71
Decline in prices 4.8 0.44 3.6 0.37 3.4 0.36 3.6 0.37 3.5 0.35
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 74.5 0.83 76.2 0.93 76.8 0.90 76.3 0.90 75.4 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 52.3 1.06 54.5 1.16 54.8 1.18 54.3 1.13 51.9 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 17.3 0.76 16.5 0.79 16.9 0.76 17.0 0.80 17.9 0.78
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.45 5.1 0.50 5.0 0.45 5.0 0.47 5.6 0.46
No changes in prices 18.1 0.76 17.3 0.79 17.6 0.81 18.0 0.82 17.9 0.78
Decline in prices 7.4 0.51 6.5 0.49 5.6 0.46 5.6 0.43 6.6 0.48
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 87.2 0.66 87.7 0.74 88.8 0.70 88.7 0.66 88.3 0.67
Price increase more than current rate 65.6 1.01 65.9 1.07 66.7 1.09 67.6 1.05 66.5 1.03
Price increase similar to current rate 17.2 0.74 17.0 0.79 17.6 0.83 17.0 0.80 17.6 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.39 4.8 0.53 4.5 0.45 4.1 0.45 4.2 0.39
No changes in prices 9.5 0.57 8.9 0.60 8.7 0.61 8.8 0.59 9.3 0.60
Decline in prices 3.3 0.36 3.4 0.40 2.5 0.30 2.5 0.31 2.3 0.30
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 80.1 0.78 82.2 0.85 81.7 0.90 81.9 0.85 82.4 0.79
Price increase more than current rate 56.3 1.08 58.8 1.18 58.4 1.19 58.8 1.15 59.4 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 18.9 0.78 17.9 0.80 18.3 0.82 18.2 0.82 17.6 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.45 5.5 0.57 4.9 0.44 5.0 0.47 5.4 0.45
No changes in prices 16.0 0.71 15.3 0.80 15.7 0.84 15.5 0.79 15.0 0.74
Decline in prices 3.9 0.38 2.4 0.30 2.6 0.32 2.6 0.33 2.6 0.31
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

 
Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Mar-25
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.5 0.08 7.8 0.11 9.5 0.08 8.9 0.13 9.4 0.11 9.7 0.23
Gender-wise                        
Male 8.8 0.12 8.1 0.15 9.6 0.12 8.9 0.20 9.5 0.16 9.9 0.23
Female 8.6 0.11 7.7 0.15 9.6 0.12 9.1 0.23 9.5 0.14 9.8 0.23
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.3 0.47 8.6 0.53 10.6 0.47 10.2 0.59 10.2 0.75 10.3 1.05
Other Employees 8.5 0.16 7.8 0.21 9.5 0.17 8.9 0.25 9.6 0.20 10.1 0.20
Self Employed 8.8 0.19 8.4 0.26 9.7 0.20 9.3 0.40 9.5 0.24 10.0 0.23
Homemaker 8.6 0.13 7.8 0.18 9.6 0.14 9.1 0.27 9.5 0.17 9.8 0.29
Retired Persons 9.3 0.33 8.9 0.65 10.4 0.35 10.1 0.52 9.7 0.43 9.5 0.56
Daily Workers 8.4 0.28 7.5 0.44 9.3 0.27 8.4 0.43 8.9 0.35 8.7 0.47
Other category 8.4 0.19 7.6 0.23 9.4 0.21 8.7 0.32 9.5 0.25 9.7 0.43
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.9 0.18 7.1 0.22 8.8 0.19 8.3 0.20 9.0 0.22 9.0 0.36
25 to 30 years 8.2 0.16 7.5 0.17 9.3 0.17 8.7 0.21 9.7 0.20 10.0 0.21
30 to 35 years 8.2 0.17 7.2 0.24 9.3 0.19 8.6 0.27 9.1 0.24 9.0 0.34
35 to 40 years 8.8 0.18 8.1 0.22 9.6 0.20 9.1 0.37 9.3 0.25 9.8 0.32
40 to 45 years 9.1 0.19 8.8 0.34 10.0 0.20 9.9 0.31 9.8 0.25 10.3 0.11
45 to 50 years 8.8 0.23 8.4 0.26 9.8 0.24 9.6 0.35 9.6 0.29 9.9 0.29
50 to 55 years 8.7 0.26 8.0 0.54 9.4 0.28 9.1 0.61 9.0 0.33 9.0 0.58
55 to 60 years 9.2 0.28 8.6 0.62 9.9 0.29 9.3 0.69 9.5 0.36 8.9 0.81
60 years and above 9.3 0.24 8.8 0.61 10.3 0.25 9.9 0.42 9.7 0.32 9.9 0.36
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 6.3 0.17 6.0 0.14 7.1 0.19 6.7 0.17 7.0 0.29 7.1 0.24
Bengaluru 6.3 0.21 5.6 0.13 7.8 0.21 7.1 0.32 8.1 0.25 7.7 0.37
Bhopal 9.2 0.54 8.9 1.14 10.3 0.47 10.3 0.35 9.9 0.61 10.3 0.56
Bhubaneswar 8.1 0.47 6.9 0.84 9.8 0.47 9.0 0.96 10.0 0.51 9.4 0.87
Chennai 8.4 0.30 8.0 0.64 9.1 0.40 8.7 0.88 9.4 0.48 9.9 0.66
Delhi 9.5 0.20 9.3 0.46 9.8 0.21 9.5 0.40 9.4 0.28 9.8 0.39
Guwahati 9.3 0.54 9.8 0.79 10.0 0.63 10.2 0.76 10.8 0.71 11.6 1.48
Hyderabad 7.7 0.27 6.8 0.43 9.7 0.32 9.3 0.60 9.8 0.35 10.1 0.31
Jaipur 7.1 0.38 6.4 0.55 7.8 0.37 7.1 0.46 7.6 0.88 7.4 0.88
Jammu 10.3 0.63 9.9 1.74 9.4 0.72 8.7 1.72 9.5 0.73 8.9 1.90
Kolkata 11.4 0.26 10.7 0.19 11.9 0.27 12.0 1.00 11.4 0.32 12.2 1.08
Lucknow 8.2 0.31 7.7 0.36 8.9 0.35 8.5 0.37 8.6 0.49 8.9 0.72
Mumbai 8.6 0.20 8.0 0.23 10.1 0.23 10.0 0.25 10.1 0.28 10.4 0.18
Nagpur 8.2 0.42 7.8 0.60 9.6 0.45 9.1 0.70 9.5 0.57 10.1 0.77
Patna 7.5 0.69 7.0 0.40 8.1 0.85 7.6 0.68 8.3 0.82 7.9 0.59
Thiruvananthapuram 7.8 0.59 6.8 0.77 9.4 0.56 8.4 0.82 10.9 0.62 10.7 0.73
Chandigarh 9.2 0.59 8.5 0.69 9.8 0.73 9.2 0.85 9.9 0.73 9.7 0.75
Ranchi 8.8 0.38 8.0 0.28 9.2 0.37 8.4 0.35 9.2 0.50 8.8 0.55
Raipur 10.0 0.42 10.1 0.45 10.5 0.42 10.3 0.49 9.8 0.53 10.0 0.57
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Mar-24 8.7 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.09 9.0 0.16 9.5 0.10 9.8 0.19
Sep-24 8.6 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.10 9.2 0.23 9.6 0.12 10.0 0.14
Nov-24 8.9 0.09 8.4 0.13 9.7 0.10 9.1 0.20 9.7 0.12 10.1 0.11
Jan-25 8.8 0.08 8.3 0.11 9.8 0.09 9.3 0.23 9.9 0.11 10.2 0.07
Mar-25 8.5 0.08 7.8 0.11 9.5 0.08 8.9 0.13 9.4 0.11 9.7 0.23
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Mar-24 65.4 66.1 61.2 64.6 66.8
Sep-24 66.0 66.4 61.6 65.6 67.5
Nov-24 65.7 66.2 61.0 64.1 71.3
Jan-25 66.2 66.2 61.1 65.3 66.0
Mar-25 64.4 67.6 60.1 65.0 68.8
One Year Ahead
Mar-24 74.6 73.6 68.3 75.0 74.2
Sep-24 78.8 75.1 68.7 77.9 75.9
Nov-24 79.6 73.8 70.1 75.7 74.4
Jan-25 75.3 73.1 67.8 75.3 73.9
Mar-25 74.3 72.7 67.0 75.4 76.9

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Mar-25
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 12 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21
1-<2 2 28 21 12 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 68
2-<3 0 6 91 73 40 15 7 4 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 246
3-<4 0 4 10 71 47 70 14 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 218
4-<5 0 1 11 11 132 114 55 18 11 2 11 0 0 1 0 0 19 0 386
5-<6 1 4 14 32 29 459 215 207 78 13 115 1 23 1 0 2 9 0 1203
6-<7 0 1 1 4 7 13 215 100 76 24 22 2 3 0 0 0 9 0 477
7-<8 0 0 0 5 4 14 5 226 138 56 78 5 6 1 0 2 1 0 541
8-<9 0 0 0 0 5 8 4 6 184 101 146 11 14 6 1 2 8 0 496
9-<10 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 8 82 71 18 24 1 2 0 2 0 213
10-<11 0 2 10 4 1 48 8 8 18 9 425 77 204 40 16 207 79 1 1157
11-<12 0 0 0 2 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 19 8 3 2 2 0 0 43
12-<13 0 0 0 2 0 9 1 0 0 0 1 3 41 10 16 32 7 0 122
13-<14 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 6 4 5 0 0 23
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 0 1 1 0 0 0 8 4 3 0 25
15-<16 0 1 1 0 1 5 0 1 1 0 7 0 0 4 0 83 108 0 212
>=16 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 2 0 0 28 0 2 0 0 19 571 5 640
Total 15 48 161 218 275 775 532 582 525 288 909 136 325 73 49 358 816 6 6091

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Mar-25
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 8 1 3 4 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 21
1-<2 10 18 16 8 4 8 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 68
2-<3 35 2 49 42 55 29 10 7 3 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 246
3-<4 24 1 9 31 41 67 26 8 2 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 218
4-<5 48 0 3 13 60 89 79 31 18 8 16 0 0 0 1 1 19 0 386
5-<6 127 2 6 17 20 254 148 190 132 38 201 7 30 3 4 13 11 0 1203
6-<7 62 0 0 1 3 11 103 91 96 31 52 5 13 1 2 1 5 0 477
7-<8 45 0 0 0 1 14 6 115 91 81 118 16 32 1 8 10 3 0 541
8-<9 31 0 0 0 2 5 5 4 99 58 181 21 56 11 3 10 10 0 496
9-<10 11 0 0 1 0 2 1 3 5 45 37 31 43 7 10 13 4 0 213
10-<11 95 1 0 2 0 26 3 5 9 6 284 45 167 52 34 249 175 4 1157
11-<12 9 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 11 3 7 4 5 0 0 43
12-<13 12 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 2 18 11 20 29 24 0 122
13-<14 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 3 5 1 0 23
14-<15 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 3 5 0 25
15-<16 16 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 51 134 0 212
>=16 61 0 0 0 1 8 0 1 0 0 20 0 2 0 0 6 540 1 640
Total 614 25 89 119 188 524 383 456 455 268 941 140 364 96 95 396 932 6 6091

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on February 07, 2025. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.

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